Mubarak to Speak, Future Uncertain for Egypt-U.S. Ties

Perhaps the final straw for Hosni Mubarak came today when hundreds of business, medical and law professionals joined the youthful, anti-government dissenters in Tahrir Square and called for the ouster of the Egyptian president.

In any case, we're learning now that Mubarak will address his people within moments and lay out his still-uncertain plans.

Reports from Egypt have been sketchy -- some say the president will be transferring power to his hand-picked vice president, Omar Suleiman, other reports have Mubarak transferring power to the Egyptian Military, and still other reports have Mubarak remaining in power, but heading to Germany to receive treatment for "health problems" (one of which might be his ability to remain alive in Egypt if he remains in power). If Mubarak stays in power - or even if he transfers power to Suleiman -- those on the ground in the Arab Republic say the unrest will continue.

Despite the nature of his 30-year, self-imposed rule, the U.S. has openly viewed Mubarak as not only an ally, but a stabilizing force for the entire Middle East. Mubarak has kept a long-standing treaty with Israel and has consequently received more than a billion dollars in aid each year from the U.S. As a result of the extensive U.S. aid the country has received, the Egyptian armed forces are on par with Israel's military, which is unequivocally the strongest in the region. Should the new Egyptian leader -- whomever he may be -- reject the treaties with the U.S. and Israel, the political face of the Middle East could change for the worse and efforts for peace could be set back decades.

One of the more dangerous organizations waiting to take advantage of the situation is the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist organization and the oldest Islamic political group in the world. Since the protests in Egypt began three weeks ago, the Muslim Brotherhood has taken great pains to reform its image and present itself as a group that is pro-democracy and anti-violence. At least one U.S. official has bought the line from the Brotherhood -- National Intelligence Director James Clapper, who earlier today told a House Select Intelligence Committee that the Muslim Brotherhood "eschews violence" and "decries al-Queda as a perversion of Islam." Other intelligence sources disagree with Clapper, noting that the organization has a long history of violent rhetoric and that Osama bin Laden himself has repeatedly quoted from the writings of Muslim Brotherhood leaders in his frequent condemnations of the West.

Whatever happens in Egypt tonight, one thing's for sure: history will be made. All the U.S. can do is wait ... and hope.

UPDATE:
Mubarak addressed his people just before 10 p.m. Egypt-time and told his people he would not step down. He has vowed he will stay in office until a peaceful transition of power can take place in September.

It remains unclear where the Egyptian military falls in all this. Military leaders have indicated a desire to quell the protests in an effort to get the nation's economy back on track (the country has been paralyzed by the protests for three straight weeks).

Mubarak may very well have made the right decision, considering the protesters appeared to have escalated the demands as the president's decision drew closer. Many demonstrators indicated they would be unwilling to disperse if Suleiman took power, and then when the conversation turned to military rule, some demonstrators indicated they wouldn't leave under those circumstances, either. Mubarak's decision to remain in power until September may very well have been influenced by these increasingly erratic demands.

So far, the protesters have not made clear exactly who they want to run their government. They've made the argument for democracy, elections and peace, but these things don't happen overnight. Candidates for election must emerge, campaigns must be run and debates must take place before the populace can make an informed decision about the country's future leadership. All of these things are necessary, or there will be a power vacuum that could be more dangerous than Mubarak's continued rule.

In the wake of Mubarak's decision, all eyes now turn to the Egyptian armed forces. What they will do if the crowd filling Tahrir square refuses to disperse and how they'll handle Mubarak's decision will be major factors in Egypt's future.

For the United States, the waiting game isn't over.